I'll explain these later... there is a graph right below the top one that tells you how it works. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nomogram_ffc.php

Today's 6Z and 12Z GFS runs clearly aren't as good for the Atlanta-Athens corridor in terms of verbatim ZR amounts vs. the prior three runs. So, this is not a good trend if you want to see significant ZR in those areas.

Steve, am I correct in reading that the Walton County/south Gwinnett area is looking at possibly less ice accumulation?

and next week temperatures in the 70's....strange weather.........

The models have trended downward on precipitation amounts today. We will see if this trend continues tonight. It's not uncommon for the models to waffle on their forecast a day or so before an event. This is still very much up in the air right now.

The system that's coming this way only entered the NW US today. Now that they've had a chance to get better data samples from that system, the exact forecast should become more focused. Today NOAA and the Air Force flew missions over the Gulf of Mexico, apparently to sample the upper levels. I expect that the next 2 or 3 more runs will get us pretty close to knowing exactly what is or isn't going to happen.

This just in from Jason, a meteorologist from north Georgia...

"Just looking at the 18z NAM soundings..

15z Friday supports all snow. (10am)
18z Friday the 800mb level warms to 1.1 which could turn it over to sleet possibly. (1pm)

Other soundings not out yet...."

One county north

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
408 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

...POTENTIAL ICE STORM FRIDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
WEDGED ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>023-240515-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0002.130125T0600Z-130126T0000Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE
408 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ROME TO GAINESVILLE.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

This includes Forsyth and Hall. Stay tuned...

New map uploaded

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CWA DURING THAT TIME
FRAME WILL CAUSE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE CUT POPS BACK A BIT 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY SINCE
BEST MOISTURE SEEMS TO COME IN LATER. YOUNKIN THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET. MAV/MET
TEMPERATURES AGREE ON MOST TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATION MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WILL HANG ON TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET INTO FRIDAY EVENING EAST SINCE COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY HANG ON IN THIS AREA. GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN WESTERN AREAS BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN ENDING NORTH 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. FOR
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH
SUNDAY. RETURN MOISTURE BRINGS CHANCE OF RAIN BACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

The trend of less rainfall is not a good sign for frozen precip.

Steve, are you saying that with less rainfall the outlook for frozen precipitation is nil?

Yes...

My biggest question (asked sarcastically): Has TWC named this storm system yet? Is this "Jove," the one that dumped a whole five inches on Rhode Island?

New map http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_01/image_full1.gif

Just issued for us:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
558 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTH AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN THE
MEANTIME...A COLD...STABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE...
WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES COOL AGAIN...ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN TO WASHINGTON...

One thing to keep in mind, our area does very well in CAD situations, in other words, the cold generally penetrates at least to central Gwinnett in most events. This time the moisture is the question.

Do you think we Will we have ice accumulation in North Gwinnett near Hamilton Mill? Thank you!

Latest update from Altanta NWS:

BUT IT DOES SEEM
THAT THE 18Z MODELS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN THE 12Z RUNS. BASED ON
THE RESULTING WX GRIDS...POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTH
GEORGIA GENERALLY NORTH OF A ROME TO GAINESVILLE LINE. IT WILL BE
A BALANCE BETWEEN TIMING THE PRECIP AND THE LATENT HEAT OF
FREEZING VERSUS THE CAA FROM THE PARENT HIGH. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL
BE REEVALUATED WITH THE 00Z RUNS.

One of the meteorologist mentioned this as the best analog comparison to this system coming up, anyone remember this?

http://ngeorgia.com/ang/Ice_Jam_2000

And remember as it said in the article...

"No Atlanta media outlets correctly predicted the weather, which only added to the problems. The Weather Channel did predict icy conditions in Georgia north of Cartersville, and did advise listeners to stay tuned because of the possibility of rapidly changing conditions, however neither they nor the National Weather Service foresaw the massive development that occurred until late Friday night. "

This will be a borderline system in terms of where the heaviest precip falls (and how heavy). But we may not know for sure until tomorrow night.

My meteorologist buddy Robert Gamble at WXSouth.com had this to say when I asked him specifically about our area. For anyone with weather related needs, business or personal, please visit WXSouth.com.

"My view is there is no mountains to block most of N GA and then I look at temps..mostly subfreezing. So if we take a blend of all the reasonable models, then that gives .25" to .50" of mostly sleet and ZR for the northern tier....just north of Atlanta. The mountains, specifically NW GA, is my best spot for most QPF, but NE GA will have the colder temps. It's a tough one for sure. ....as you know by reading my update I guess.
If I were a betting man, I'd say most of the northern GA counties will have significant ZR on the trees, unless there is more sleet (that would be northeast GA under 925 cold temps I think).
The bottom line is, IF IF IF IF there is at least .50" QPF then this will get bad for northern GA, I mostly mean the mountain counties, but can't rule out the northern suburbs of Atlanta and near Toccoa, Rome, and Gainesville. The temps probably don't come up to 32º until right at the end. The only question is how much QPF."

Trends are not good for precip. Cold air will be here though... we have half of it. We'll see how tomorrow goes.

Time to flip the new TRILLION dollar coin?

Status Quo. More later...

It's starting to look like the precip will come in too late to be of the frozen variety. Had it come in late tonight or toward morning, it would be an entirely different issue. It's all about the timing.

AS HIGH QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THE CAD WEDGE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. NAM AND GFS WERE BOTH ADVECTING IN DECENTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS /MAINLY IN TEENS/ WITH THIS WEDGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG AT FIRST AND THE PROGGED MOISTURE FIELD LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERRUN INITIALLY AS A CLOUD SHIELD AFTER ABOUT 09Z FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP INSULATE THE WEDGE AND SERVE TO REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO GET TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A BIT LATER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH WILL START AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NOT GET TO THE ATLANTA AREA UNTIL AFTER 15Z (10am). THIS WOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PROGGED OVERNIGHT MINS...HOWEVER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEWPOINTS...ANY DROPLETS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EVAP COOLING AND SO THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS DURING PRECIP ONSET MAY LOWER THE SFC TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SOUTH OF ABOUT ROME TO GAINESVILLE TO HAVE MUCH OF A DIABATIC IMPACT.

FOR P-TYPE AND AMOUNT...ANALYSES OF PROGGED LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A COMBINATION OF FZRA AND RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHERE ISENTROPIC ANALYSES ON 295K THETA LEVEL SUPPORTED THE BEST LIFT. THE FAR NORTHEAST SHOULD HAVE FZRA NEARLY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND COULD HAVE TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 INCHES...WHILE 0.10-0.25 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA. SOUTH OF A ROME TO GAINESVILLE LINE LOOKS TO GET LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH... AND PERHAPS ONLY A GLAZE OF ICE NEAR THE ATLANTA AREA. AREAS WITH ONLY A GLAZE TO LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIP...MAINLY 15-18Z NEAR ATLANTA

Whew, this all sounds MUCH better.

Cold dry air advecting in right now. The humidity is dropping almost 9%/hour right now, even though temps are pretty steady and winds are turning and coming from the NNE. A little later today, colder air will begin pushing southwest down the east side of the App. Mtn's and we'll cool off even more.

Latest model run still has us in the precip, if we can get temps below freezing to start, then get some dynamic cooling as the precip falls, we still might pull out some ice. Amounts are light, generally around 0.10" in our area, but plenty to REALLY mess up traffic.

it's not over 'till he fat lady sings, and she ain't singin' just yet. ;-)

I'm actually getting more excited about what may come tomorrow evening versus during the day. We will only barely get above freezing tomorrow, and the moisture will be hanging around/moving a little slow. I believe tomorrow evening (at least at this point) might be a better chance to winter precip for us.

Steve, when you say "tommorrow evening," are you talking about after rush hour traffic?

Right now, yes Jimmy. We're getting down to less than 24 hours now so by this evening, we should have a pretty good idea how this is going to play out.

It will still come down to a NOWCast type situation where it's hour by hour as the system approaches Atlanta.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
124 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN EVENT ON FRIDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
WEDGED ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY.

• LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE ELLIJAY TO CUMMING TO GAINESVILLE. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH OF LINE FROM FRANKLIN TO GRIFFIN TO EATONTON TO CRAWFORDVILLE.

• HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

• ACCUMULATIONS....LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...BEFORE
THE FREEZING RAIN TURNS TO ALL RAIN AND MELTS.

• TIMING...6 AM TO 1PM EST FRIDAY.

• IMPACTS...ICE WILL CAUSE ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME
SLIPPERY...MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

• WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

• TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 IN THE MORNING WARMING TO AROUND 40 BY
AFTERNOON.

Forsyth and Hall are still under a Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
124 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
WEDGED ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

• LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ELLIJAY TO CUMMING TO GAINESVILLE.

• HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET.

• ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE...ESPECIALLY ON TREES AND
POWER LINES. LITTLE TO NO SLEET ACCUMULATION.

• TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

• IMPACTS...ICE AND POSSIBLE SLEET WILL CAUSE ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLIPPERY...MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ICE MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE
ON POWER LINES AND TREES...POSSIBLY LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES.

• WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH

• TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MORNING WARMING TO
THE LOWER 30S BY AFTERNOON.

Atlanta NWS is in a quandary:

WITH THAT ALL BEING SAID THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT STILL
CONCERN ME ABOUT THIS FORECAST.
1. WE HAVE VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SHALLOW DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THIS LAYER...THIS LAYER COULD COOL FASTER THAN FORECAST. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO LEAD TO A STRENGTHEN OF THE OVERALL CAD. IF THIS IS THE CASE...MORE ICE COULD ACCUMULATE THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW GA AND METRO AREA.

2. OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. QPF
VALUES SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACROSS THE NE GA MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE THAT IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE HAS A RATHER LONG FETCH ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. WHILE ITS SOURCE IS FROM THE
GULF...THE FLOW COMES FROM THE EAST IN TEXAS. THIS MAY...LEAD TO
LESS MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA THAN FORECAST. IF THIS IS THE
CASE THEN THE CURRENT ICE ACCUMULATION VALUES AND TOTAL QPF WOULD BE OVERDONE.

I mentioned this several hours ago. The dew point at DaculaWeather.com is down to around 16 degrees right now while the humidity is 24%, the air is very dry and getting dryer as the night goes on and the cold air advects our way. Dew points along the mountains in NC are already below zero.

In the morning when the moisture begins to fall, some of it is wasted before it gets to the ground through evaporative cooling. That cooling will cause the temperatures to fall further and reinforce the cold air that will already be in place.

This will be touch and go in the morning. I'll be up early to let you know what to expect, but as I said earlier, it's going to be close. We could get a substantial amount of ice or we may get almost nothing.

More later...

This is getting to be VERY interesting.

It seems that the short range models are trending heavier with the precipitation, not just here but north Georgia and North Carolina. What I am seeing are dew points in the single digits in NC and TN. Right now at DaculaWeather.com, we have 31.8F wet-bulb temperature and 19.8ºF dew point. Colder air is quickly filling in with our temp at 37.7ºF and falling.

Would rather be out of work tomorrow with snow, not ice! Wondering how Gwinnett would call this with "expected" ice not coming in until after high schools have started, yet turning to rain before end of day.

My guess... and this is strictly my guess... they will wait until 5 am to decide. You can bet they will do their best to get the school day in... and I work for them. Teachers don't really want tomorrow off for a snow day because they get a 4 day weekend in February. Off tomorrow, only a three day weekend. :-)

Wish there was something to report but nothing new right now. I'll be up early to give you updates.

Currently 33.8ºF with 29.4ºF wet bulb. Temp is falling about 2.5º/hr.

How much ice accumulation do you think Dacula and surrounding area will get if any?

If I had to make an educated guess... around 0.10". It will depend on the timing of the precip... and right now, there is none to see. It's a very difficult forecast.

ok, thanks. Are the models trending more precipitation still?

They have pretty much stabilized. Part of what falls will be evaporated and used to moisten the air, and at the same time, cool the air. So more than .1" will fall, but somewhere around that number will freeze.

I can tell you, meteorologist HATE forecasting this storm.

How much ice does it take for limbs to fall off trees etc?

You need 1/4" or more before big branches start to break. Here's a good study on ice and trees
http://web.aces.uiuc.edu/vista/pdf_pubs/icestorm.pdf

Weak returns over TN right now but not a lot on radar. Travel this morning is not an issue.

Some very light returns on radar that have increased some, but nothing reaching the ground around us. The air has dried even more, I currently have a dew point of 11.2F, web bulb of 24.9F, and a temp of 29.9F ANYTHING that falls will have to moisten up the column before anything could reach the ground. And as I've been mentioning, this act would also cause the temperatures to fall toward that dew point.

Radar I'm using now http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ridge_georgia.php
Click on Map after it loads

Hall and Forsyth schools closed.

A couple of pages I use for observations

1. A Mesonet map - http://www.daculawea.../4_mesonet.php�
2. Google Map - Zoom in and turn on Station Markers - http://www.daculawea...oogle_radar.php

I think the threat is over for us. We might see a brief period of some light precip but nothing to write home about. This system just didn't have enough moisture to work with and no real lift to generate any precipitation.

On to next weekend. The models are looking very promising about this system and this would fall into my original thoughts of a strong shot of cold air that period. This time, it's looking juicy though. This could be a gulf low that would have ample moisture and plenty of cold air. It's a week away but something to watch.

Steve, first of all, thank YOU for the job that you do in keeping us abreast of current weather conditions via Dacula Patch. Have been up since 5 AM. Temp then was 35 degrees. Has dropped to 33 degrees. Do we (Gwinnett County) still remain out of the woods so to speak?

Thanks Jimmy!
First, it's 28º at DaculaWeather.com with a wet bulb of 25ºF Right now light precip is falling over parts of Gwinnett but it's not going to amount to much I don't believe. The air is very dry and it will take a decent amount of moisture to overcome the dryness. By the time that happens, it will probably be too late if at all.

That doesn't mean some people won't see some...

As this light moisture is falling into the dry air, the humidity is going up, around 67% right now. At the same time, the temperature has fallen to 27.8ºF. Very blustery outside today. It figures we get the cold in place and don't have the moisture. Last time we had the moisture in place and no cold.

Next time we'll have both.

Is that a promise? I really like having my "once a year" snow. Don't need much more, that is why I live in the south! But, I like to have it at least a day or so off work! Thanks for all the work you do.

Want to see a beautiful picture... this is next Friday and is one of the ensemble members of the Euro model. If this comes to fruition there will be some REALLY happy kids (including myself) next weekend.

http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_01/friday.jpg

I haven't measured any precip at the house yet but from my camera view, I can see the asphalt in front of my house is darker than normal telling me some kind of precip fell.

Steve, just walked down to the mail box. Light drizzle. No accumulation on the driveway or the street. Light glaze (more like a heavy frost) on the mail box and the PVC pipes I use to extend the downspouts away from the house. My thermometer is reading 35 which is about 6 degrees warmer than your offical thermometer. It must be somewhere around 29 degrees plus or minus.

Good to know Jimmy! Thanks for the report! If anyone else has any precip reports, please post them here!

There is some precip building back to the west. Whether it holds together before the temps rise above freezing is to be seen.

Currently 29.7ºF but slowly rising... the race is on. Still have a 26.8ºf wet bulb though.

There is a steady SE movement to the precipitation right now. It's currently over NW GA headed toward Rome and Gadsden AL on the southern edge. This is a little encouraging and a little disturbing. Schools will be letting out about the time this arrives. We are going to be in trouble if the temps stay down. I'm watching this very closely right now.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ridge_georgia.php
Click on map inside thew loop after it loads.

Steve, when I check-in, I am talking about our neck of the woods. Remember, I only live about 3 or 4 miles down the road from you.

Yep, I appreciate that! The next couple of hours might be interesting. I'm beginning to worry a little about afternoon traffic, especially on the NE side where the CAD is still firmly entrenched. Timing, timing, timing...

I am in Dacula, its 26-28 degrees on my back porch, I know that not official reading as my thermometer is 12' off the ground on my screened porch. That rain is edging closer and looks like CAD is firm right now. gonna be interesting shortly.

Thanks Trent! I agree... could be very interesting.

If we get anything it would be in the next 30 minutes to an hour. Quick... run outside!
:-)

Amazing. All the weather outlets are calling for high 50's to mid 60's next weekend.

If I remember correctly, today was forecasted at the beginning of the week to be a high in the mid 50's. They really missed that one!

:-) It was. When I mentioned on Tuesday that there was a possibility of ice on Friday, they were calling for 53º. My high for the day actually occurred at midnight when I hit 35.7ºF, but for the actual day, I only reached 33ºF. So yes, they were only 20 degrees wrong!

This morning the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center said this about the forecast:
WILL NOT BELABOR THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST: IT IS VERY LOW.

Patterns are changing again. Will go through a warm up before the system next weekend, and back to the cold, and this next batch should be colder. February is going to be our month for winter and it will be a roller coaster ride, but I think it's going to be fun.

Hey Tommy! You shouldn't be surprised about next weekend! :-)

So they are saying the system next Friday will not produce any snow? I sure hope we get some :) Thanks for all of your information.

I was looking at a temperature map of the local area It's in the mid-50's south of the airport and even the mid 40's downtown. 32 here. Shows you the strength of the CAD.

Look at it here: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_01/fztp.gif

Folks, you've got to stop listening to those TV weather gurus. When the first inking of bad weather conditions comes up on my radar, I go on-line and see what NGW has to say. I have found Steve to furnish the best what I call play by play of the weather patterns heading our way. Knowing that I would be leaving the house this AM, I begin tracking today's forecast shortly after 5:00 AM. It was right on the money. Apparently the cold air got here but the moisture did not.

Thank you very much Jimmy! Very kind words! :-)

Hey Steve, I got my fields plowed today--3 acres worth. It was a BEAUTIFUL day. Now if you can get some snow on them with a slow melt, I'll give you some tomatoes this summer!!

Here we go...

THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE PERIOD IS A THERMAL ROLLER COASTER, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST DAY 3, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES DAYS 4-6, THEN A PRONOUNCED CHINOOK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 7.

And this means....? Are we setting up for another weekend scare next week?

Not sure yet Sharon. There are two systems coming in this week. The first system coming in Wednesday/Wednesday night that looks like a severe weather event, then Friday/Saturday another cold front brings cold air again. As always at this time of year, there is almost always the potential for winter weather, it's too early to tell right now though. The Euro depicted a potential cut-off low and kept holding energy back, allowing cold air to come in before the precip. Time will tell though.

Looks like we weren't too far off from the ice. I know we had ice over on the Harbins side of Dacula, it anyone else had some I'd love to hear where it was!

NWS write up of the event: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=icestorm_01252013

And Friday.... HA!

AS FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA EARLY FRIDAY...AND WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.
MODELS SUGGESTING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WOULD ENTER
FAR NORTH GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY...AND QUICKLY SPREAD
EASTWARD...GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF GEORGIA
COUNTIES...AND QUICKLY EXIT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF THE SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/MIX
PRECIPITATION...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK BE EXTREMELY LIGHT.

From my buddy Larry in Savannah:

" There's no question that having had three winters in a row with a major snow in Atlanta, (don't forget that 3/1/2009 had a 4.2" fall at Atlanta, itself) as well as a total of six 1"+ snows, lead to a way above normal three year period. The total was a whopping 16.6"! That was the first time since the three winter period of 1892-1893 through 1894-5 that Atlanta had three winters in a row with at least one major S/IP!! How often has Atlanta had 16.6"+ of S/IP over just three winters? Well, the last time was in the early 1980's, thanks mainly to a combo of SnowJam '82 and the 3/24/1983 snow. 19.3" fell 1981-2 through 1983-4. Prior to that, one has to go all of the way back to 1896-7 through 1898-9 to find the last three winter period producing that much S/IP! (when 16.9" fell). The record highest by far was for 1892-3 through 1894-5, when a whopping 29.8" fell!! Each of those three winters had at least one 6"+ S/IP and one winter had two 4+"'s!"

I'll have a new post within the hour regarding this week coming up, but this from the SPC today:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE THAT A POWERFUL AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE RAPID PROGRESS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE D4/WEDNESDAY. A MID LEVEL WIND MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COINCIDENT WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A PLUME OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCH PW VALUES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS PHL AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EURO AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.

OK... one more comment for this blog post.

Possible severe coming in Wednesday/Wednesday night, I think this will mostly be a potential high wind events as strong upper level winds may be drawn toward the surface. A good soaking rain should be in store (see if we can muddy up that garden for you Tommy!) with almost 1.5" of rainfall if we're lucky.

NWS is downplaying the light snow Thursday night but are bringing up the potential for Saturday night.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO BE OF BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A MUCH WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUENCE...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS IS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH... KEEPING THE BEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE TN/GA BORDER. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF THE LIGHT WINTER PRECIP. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

... continued

... continued

THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPACTING NORTH GEORGIA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LIKE WITH THE EARLIER DISTURBANCE...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND THE ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW FLURRIES EARLY SUNDAY FOR FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

The discussion is here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php

Pretty cool!
http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t3&buffer_share=016eb&utm_source=buffer#/video/us/2013/01/22/dnt-vt-snow-rollers-wcax.wcax

A comment from a local meteorologist this morning about the storms on Wednesday:

"I agree this is not a prime tornado setup, but given the very strong dynamics I think there is a pretty good chance of at least a few embedded QLCS tornadoes lasting well into the night across the South, with maybe even one or two supercell tornadoes ahead of the main line, especially in AR/LA early tomorrow evening. Despite the poor timing here in GA, this is such a dynamic system even a noon passage of the line Wednesday could result in a fain amount of problems from wind. This looks like one of the better January severe setups in a while, maybe not from a tornadic standpoint, but there will likely be a ton of wind reports."