Rain... lots of it.

Excerpts from the HPC's extended forecast this morning
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php

THURSDAY, FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD GET HUNG UP THROUGH SE GA OR NORTHERN FL. GULF INFLOW SHOULD DRAW IN PW VALUE OVER 1.50 INCHES /GEFS PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST THAT ARE OVER 70 PERCENT, WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR SOME LOCATIONS FOR FEB. 48-HR MODEL QPF REMAIN IN
THE 4-5 INCH RANGE WHILE THE ENSEMBLES HOVER AROUND 2-2.5 INCHES.

SECOND VERSE... SAME AS THE FIRST... WITH THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AND THE RECORD REPEATS FROM WEST TO EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS ADVERTISED AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MON-TUE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THERE IS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Atlanta NWS AFD this morning
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php

IT`S BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THE GREATER THREAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, AS THE STALLED OR SLOW MOVING FRONT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. HPC`S FIVE DAY RAINFALL TOTAL SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA, MAINLY FALLING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BRING FLOOD PRONE RIVERS AND STREAMS BACK INTO MINOR FLOOD OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE FLOOD
AND ISOLATED STRONG STORM POTENTIAL CLOSELY GOING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, TOOK A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER GFS, HOLDING ONTO HIGH POPS ON
SATURDAY, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

Critical Weather Day Issued:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1328Z TUE FEB 19 2013

12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...

72645/GRB - 10142.
72776/TFX - 10142.
78866/SXM - 10142.
78073/NAS - 10142.
91408/ROR - MISSING PART A.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

CWD WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AT 20/0000Z AND IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT 22/1200Z.. A DEVELOPING STRONG WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL ALSO TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LA/MS. A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN AND MIXED WINTER
PRECIP WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/AR DURING THE CWD
PERIOD.

NWS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS... NCF..TOC AND NCEP WILL
PARTICIPATE IN THIS CWD TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RELIABLE FLOW OF
DATA AND RESOURCES TO NWS OFFICES DURING THIS EVENT.

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Keep the weather for the first week of March in mind before making any plans...

There appears to be something on the horizon that may be... well,something large and white. Kristi... are you listening?

Steve,
I hope you're right about the rain this time. ;-)

T

Don't tease me about winter weater Steve. I can only take so much. Hope your right.

First... this is from the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook from Atlanta this morning:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLOODING AND EVEN FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING AND HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ONCE AGAIN. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO APPEARS LIKELY AS WELL ON MONDAY.

A Hydrologic Outlook was also issued at 7:19pm last night, it's long so here's a link:
http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/4_severe_alert.php

Very LONG Area Forecast Discussion this morning from the Atlanta NWS
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php

OK - I am going to hang on to that small thread for our snow this year. I know we do have some doosies in March. Seems like this might be our last chance til next year.

Three of Atlanta's top ten snowstorms occurred in March, the March 24th 1983 snowstorm which was #1 (SnowJam), #6 March 13 1993 (Storm of The Century), and #8 March 10th 1960.
Actually, the current analogs also point to 1960 as one of the closest matches for this March.

I have to show you something. This is an 850 MB map from the GFS model for Friday, March 1. If the storm you see in the image came to fruition, it would be very close to the strength of the infamous 1993 Storm of The Century. This is the kind of stuff we're seeing in the 10-12 day range right now, and it's pretty exciting to look at. Lots of time between now and then so we'll wait and see how things evolve.

http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/soc.png

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
742 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
WATCH AREA WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN TO
CUMMING TO HOMER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA TO AROUND 4 INCHES OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

THE WATCH TIME PERIOD IS FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ADD ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OR ANOTHER
WATCH ISSUANCE.

* LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS...
DITCHES...AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH
DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING.

... continued

WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...FLINT...OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVER BASINS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES...MAINLY
SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS.

HOWEVER...DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY AFFECT FLOOD PRONE ROADS AND STRUCTURES
NEARBY. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ABBEVILLE AREA SINCE THE
OCMULGEE RIVER WAS IN MINOR FLOOD JUST THIS WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE
LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
839 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013

.UPDATE FOR HYDROLOGY...
HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH NOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
ALL OF CENTRAL GA BEGINNING FRIDAY AT NOON TO SATURDAY AT 600 PM EST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND HPC HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN DEPICTING A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED 5 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF GA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE
ANTICIPATED PWS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE AT OR EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR FEBRUARY.

DUE TO THE WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...EXPECT EXTENSIVE MINOR
FLOODING WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
WERE IN FLOOD JUST THIS WEEK. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS...HILLY TERRAIN OR WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA...BUT MAINLY EXPECT PONDING ON ROADS DUE TO SLOW
DRAINAGE AND STEADY RISES ON CREEKS AND RIVERS THAT WILL TAKE
SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE BEFORE CAUSING ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...ONCE FLOODING IS OBSERVED IT MAY TAKE MANY HOURS FOR IT
TO RECEDE.

LOL! R, like many of us, Tommy doesn't have a lot of faith in some of these forecast, and especially this winter. I can show you an image for the forecast for March temps being well below normal for us in the southeast, but it wouldn't look much different that the previous cold forecasts that never really materialized. We've been teased many times this year, but never been kissed, it's about time for a big, fat, wet one! :-)

VERY long Area Forecast Discussion this morning, here's the link so you can read it all, as well as a few excerpts:
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
456 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
IF YOU BLINKED...YOU PROBABLY MISSED THE BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER WE HAD YESTERDAY. A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT BEING THE PROLONGED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. FOR
THE SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL MASS FIELDS...THOUGH WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO THE DETAILS THERE ARE SOME MUCH LARGER DIFFERENCES.

I was going to post more, but there is a lot going on with the weather right now, and they had a lot to write about, so please click on the link above, sit back, grab a drink, and have a nice little read. :-)

Ahhh..... the first mention of what I was alluding to on Tuesday!

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA. WHILE
CURRENT MODEL DATA DOES NOT FORECAST WINTER PRECIP...THE PATTERN
THAT IS BEING FORECAST COULD LEAD TO SOME WINTER PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE MODELS FORECAST WINTER PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WOULD LEAD TO WINTER PRECIP AT NIGHT WHEN THE AIR
TEMP WOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING.

Fuzzy things are beginning to appear in the crystal ball... :-)

From the HPC this morning:

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR REPEATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORMING AND STRENGTHENING, WHILE ONE OR MORE REGIONS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS 2.5 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR AND MULTIPLE REGIONS AND PERIODS OF ASCENT PROVIDE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS, DESPITE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAINING QUITE LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST, THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WERE CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3. THE MODEL QPF VALUES VARIED CONSIDERABLY, WITH THE MEDIAN AND SOUTHWARD AXES OF THE GFS/ECMWF FAVORED MORE THAN THE NORTHWARD NAM, WITH 24 TO 48-HOURLY TOTALS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 4 TO 5 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

Winter storm Q? Are you serious Weather Channel? I am done with them! I just deleted their app off my phone. DaculaWeather - do you have a mobile app or know a good one for iphones?

LOL! This naming of winter storms is crazy.
What is it you'd like to see in this app Mitch? I know of several good solutions depending on your needs.

Mitch, I use RadarScope for radar images on my android tablet, it also works on iPads and iPhones. It cost a few dollars but well worth it. It will also display Level2 hi rez data.

WeatherGeek is pretty good for model images and loops.

The Storm Prediction Center has a mobile version of their Mesoscale Analysis product here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/mobile.php

And... last but not least, I have a page designed to cell phones etc. It has the forecast, current conditions (which auto-update like on my main page) and a Google radar loop.
http://www.daculaweather.com/cellphone.php

I have more stuff if you need it! :-)

Looks like I need to fix the radar loop on the cell phone page, I'll have it fixed today, I know the issue.

The cellphone app is excellent. Thank you. If I may make a suggestion: make the Daculaweather.com at the top a link to the main Website.

drdata

Man, you are smokin'!

drdata

So far today, 1.26" at 5:40am and still raining, for a 1.30" total. The rain will taper off a bit today but return tonight and tomorrow.

March 3rd.... that date keeps popping up. Not this weekend, but next. Think white.

If anyone out there is a Google Maps developer, I'd like to talk to you about a project! I need to migrate Google API v2 code to v3.

From meteorologist Allan Hoffman this morning, Allan was gracious enough to allow me to use his model images on my site. Allan is a meteorologist in Raleigh

"The pattern seems very threatening for a suppressed storm system to form and bring the threat of wintry precipitation to areas far to the south. However, the models are not latching on to any one s/w yet or one storm system. Some of the various ensemble members do show winter storms, but none of the operational models yet, although the 00z ECMWF is very close. Stay tuned to the 2/28 through 3/5 time frame as I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a storm threat pop up in that time window. Either way it looks to be well below normal temperature wise."

http://www.examiner.com/article/cold-close-to-winter-ahead?CID=examiner_alerts_article

.UPDATE...
BULK OF PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AND
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS DECREASE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. GIVEN LOW CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR...HAVE MENTIONED DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FOR THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE HRRR HOLDS OFF ON
BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE ATL METRO AREA UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER HI RES MODELS SUGGEST A LATER TIME
FRAME WITH THE BETTER POPS BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR THE ATL AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE HRRR...BUT MAY
STILL BE ON THE EARLY SIDE.

MU CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 400 J/KG. WITH LIMITED
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS MORNING...HAVE OPTED TO SHOW ISOLATED
THUNDER THROUGH 18Z AND THEN SCATTERED THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER HEATING OF THE DAY.

HAVE SEEN ONE RIVER SITE /CUMMING/ GO INTO FLOOD THIS MORNING BUT
WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THINK MOST HYDRO PROBLEMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

What we're seeing from the models that we haven't seen all winter (or last winter at all) is a west based -NAO block. That block forces the cold air south instead of shunting it off the upper east coast. All the models are showing it in the 8-10 day period which they haven't done all winter. So a big ridge out west, and a big ridge off the east coast near Greenland force the cold south.

Once the cold air is in place, it will force systems to swing around the base of the trough and either try to form a Gulf low or overrun the cold air at the surface. Either way, if we can get the cold air in place, our chances for winter precipitation go up dramatically. Donald Sutherland made a post last night:

"Some late evening thoughts...
Perhaps lending support to the ideas expressed in Message #631, some of the ensemble guidance is now suggesting that the EPO could go negative during the first week in March. If that happens, prospects of at least a period of cross-polar flow could increase."

That would tap into the cold in Russia and bring some this way. We'll just have to see how this evolves.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

VALID 12Z MON FEB 25 2013 - 12Z FRI MAR 01 2013

...'BLOCKY' PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

...ACTIVE MIDWEST WINTER STORM TRACK EXPECTED...DAYS 3-5...

TRENDS CONTINUED WITH THE BLOCKY (NEGATIVE) NAO PATTERN EMERGING
IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY
COME AROUND TO THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CYCLONE PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CONUS WILL COME TO A HALT AROUND DAY 5. THE PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND SPLITTING SYSTEMS CONTINUES THROUGH DAY 7.

From Robert Gamble at WXSouth.com:

"If you're a snow lover in the East, this post is for you. I've mentioned how the AO and NAO haven't timed or synch'd up yet. Now it's game time I think, they both are synching up. And it's not in the "10 day"...it begins mid week with the ...next big upper low closing off in the Lakes. This will be the deep trough in the heart land and Eastern US that opens up the door to Canada and ushers in sustained cold, unlike no pattern seen this Winter. Now it's late Winter, so this won't be severe cold, but plenty cold aloft. And the GFS just in keeps such a strong Greenland block and holds this trough in place with several systems rotating though the Deep Eastern Trough, with a hint at retrograding flow ( ! )
This is about how you want to see the GFS in this time range....IE, cold and dry. There is probably going to be a couple of strong systems that round the bend of the trough and could tap the Gulf, turning into a Major Winter Storm in the Southeast, MidAtlantic or Northeast (or all 3)."

Latest from Atlanta NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN A LULL ACROSS THE CWA IN REGARDS TO PRECIP, BUT THIS WONT LAST
LONG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WITH THE
PRECIP FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA. SHOULD SEE THE NEXT WAVE OF
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL END ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE MORNING, WITH THE RAIN COMING TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER AS A SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY, THIS WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM FOR THIS AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT WAVE TONIGHT. THEY ARE
ALSO SIMILAR WITH CLEARING OUT THE PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

Alma airport in Bacon County, just south of Macon, was 68º F just a little while ago, while we're hovering about 1º above 38. Almost a 30 degree temperature difference. Illustrates the strength of the CAD we have today. Even Nashville is in the lower 60's right now.

Mr Sutherland's evening thoughts (he has a lot of these!)

"Having said that, given the analog cases that have been coming up, I continue to have reasonable confidence that March 2013 could be the snowiest since March 2009 in some parts of the East. Whether or not a KU storm would occur is a different matter, but at least one of the analog cases had such a storm.

The idea of a colder than normal start to March remains on track. With blocking forecast to grow stronger through the medium-term, one cannot rule out the prospect of an Arctic air mass moving down out of Canada at some point during the first 7-10 days in March."